Introduction
Jakarta, Bogor, Tangerang, and Bekasi (Jabotabek) area is one of the rapidly developing regions in Indonesia. Jabotabek consists of Jakarta, city of Bogor, Kabupaten (district) of Bogor, city of Tangerang, Kabupaten of Tangerang, city of Bekasi, and Kabupaten of Bekasi – the last six areas is called Botabek area. The Jabotabek region is located in the northern part of West Java covering an area of 6580 km2.
During 1971-1980, the annual growth rates in Jakarta was 4.0% and in Botabek 4.1%. In 1980-1990, the annual growth rate in Jakarta became smaller (2.4%) while the one in Botabek increased (4.9%). It is estimated that by the year 2005, the population in Jakarta will be more than 10 million and that in Jabotabek will be more than 26 million. The annual growth rates during 1990-2010 are estimated between 1.55% (Jakarta) and 4.46% (Tangerang).
Table 1 Population in Jabotabek (000)
| Area | Km2 | 1 | 971 | 19 | 80 | 19 | 990 | 71-80 | 80-90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| per-yr | per-yr | ||||||||
| Jakartn | 656 | 4579 | (55%) | 6503 | (55%) | 8210 | (48%) | 4.0% | 2.4% |
| Botabek | 5924 | 3761 | (45%) | 5413 | (45%) | 8746 | (52%) | 4.1% | 4 9% |
| Bogor | 3380 | 1863 | 600-100-11-0001-00001000 | 2741 | 3949 | 4.4% | 2.7% | ||
| Tangerang | 1260 | 1067 | 1529 | 2724 | 4.1% | 5.9% | |||
| Bekasi | 1284 | 831 | 1143 | 2073 | 3.6% | 6.1% | |||
| Jabotabek | 6580 | 8340 | (100%) | 11916 | (100%) | 16956 | (100%) | 4.0% | 3.6% |
Source: Census 1971, 1980, 1990
Table 2 Estimated Population in Jabotabek (000)
| Area | 1990 | 1995 | 2000 | 2005 | 2010 | 1990-2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| per-yr | ||||||
| Jakarta | 8210 | 8964 | 9738 | 10487 | 11178 | 1,55% |
| Botabek | 8746 | 11077 | 13528 | 16103 | 18732 | 3.19% |
| Bogor | 3949 | 4810 | 5674 | 6533 | 7407 | 3.88% |
| Tangerang | 3724 | 3570 | 4506 | 5504 | 6523 | 4.46% |
| Bekasi | 2073 | 2697 | 3348 | 4066 | 4802 | 4.29% |
| Jabotabk | 16956 | 20041 | 23266 | 26590 | 29910 | 2.88% |
For the last ten years, private developers have proposed and started to develop several new towns as well as industrial
estates in Jabotabek covering an area of more than 43000 ha.
Table 3 New Town and Industrial Estate Development in Botabek Area
| Kabupaten | New Town | На |
|---|---|---|
| Bogor | Rancamaya | 550 |
| • | Royal Sentul | 2000 |
| Kota Cileungsi | 2000 | |
| Lido Lakes Resort | 1700 | |
| Tangerang | Bumi Serpong Damai | 6000 |
| Tiga Raksa | 3000 | |
| Citra Raya | 2500 | |
| Bintaro Jaya | 1700 | |
| Gading Serpong | 1000 | |
| Pantai Indah Kapuk | 800 | |
| Lippo Karawaci | 1500 | |
| Alam Sutra | 700 | |
| Perumahan Modern | 770 | |
| Bekasi | Lippo Cikarang | 5000 |
| Kota Legenda | 2000 | |
| Cikarang Baru | 5400 | |
| Industrial Estate | ||
| Bogor | 440 | |
| Tangerang | 3250 | |
| • | Bekasi | 3312 |
New towns and industrial estates in Botabek region -- utilizing high accessibility of the existing or new road network -- are located closed to the toll road corridor. The government regulations, on the other hand, require only the private developers to provide internal facilities and services of the new towns. This in turn may create major problem at regional level, such as traffic congestion, flooding, water shortage. This is what this paper would like to address, i.e. how serious the problem will be -- especially the regional transportation problem, and whether the regulations requiring only the internal facilities should be evaluated. In addition, given the availability of the data, this paper will be focused on Bumi Serpong Damai (BSD) which is located in Kabupaten Tangerang
Nomor 21/Mei 1996 Jurnal PWK - 61
Bumi Serpong Damai New Town
Based on its Master Plan, Bumi Serpong Damai (BSD) is expected to be fully developed by the year 2015. However, during its first 6 year development process (1989-1995), only about 12% of the area had been developed. It should be noted that the BSD's 1989-1995 trend is very similar to the one of Bintaro Jaya, also located in Kabupaten Tangerang. With this background, two scenarios will be developed for BSD projection, the first scenario will be based on the 1989-1995 trend and the second one based on the target stated in the master plan.
Table 4 Scenario of Developed Area Projetion\nin BSD
| Master Plan | Developed | |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Area | |
| На | 1989-1995 | |
| На | ||
| Housing | 3690 | 232 |
| Commercial | 530 | 10 |
| Others | 1780 | 486 |
| Total | 6000 | 728 |
Based on these two scenarios and assuming 4-5 persons per household, the estimated housing units and BSD population are shown on table 5.
Table 5 Estimated Housing Unit and Population in BSD
| Year | Housing Units | Population | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I | 11 | I | II | ||
| 2000 | 9752 | 20032 | 43883 | 90143 | |
| 2005 | 18184 | 44087 | 76371 | 185163 | |
| 2010 | 29147 | 78484 | 116587 | 313937 | |
| 2015 | 42642 | 123225 | 170567 | 492900 | |
Note Scenario I based on development trend Scenario II based on Master Plan target
Furthermore, based on figures from some studies done for BSD (see, e.g. Harjaya et.al. 1996, Prakosa et.al. 1996) and also some figures from the ARSDS's figures (ARSDS. 1985) as such income by distribution, trip rate income. commuting pattern, modal split, and other variables, the estimated trip distribution for BSD could be estimated.
Under Scenario I, the commuting patterns are assumed to be the same with the one in 1995, i.e. 43%. For Scenario II, however, the commuting patterns are assumed to be decreasing from 43% in 1995 to 25% in 2015, i.e. given BSD will be fully developed as a major urban center providing a wide range of urban facilities and services, so that the residents will not have to go to Jakarta. The estimated trip distributions for BSD based on the two scenarios are shown on table 6.
Table 6 Estimated Trip Distributions for BSD
| Year | Scenario I | Scenario II | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N - I | B - I | Tot - I | N - II | B-II | Tot - II | ||
| 2000 | BSD-Jakarta | 19687 | 18954 | 38641 | 36097 | 41512 | 77609 |
| BSD-Botabek | 25057 | 10993 | 36050 | 45941 | 24077 | 70018 | |
| 2005 | BSD-Jakarta | 43647 | 32986 | 76633 | 92257 | 67674 | 159931 |
| BSD-Botabek | 55551 | 19132 | 74683 | 117419 | 39251 | 156670 | |
| 2010 | BSD-Jakarta | 68910 | 55973 | 124883 | 143374 | 74073 | 217447 |
| BSD-Botabek | 87704 | 32464 | 120168 | 182476 | 42963 | 225439 | |
| 2015 | BSD-Jakarta | 143374 | 74073 | 217447 | 297092 | 75354 | 372447 |
| BSD-Botabek | 182476 | 42963 | 225439 | 378118 | 43706 | 421823 | |
Note N Non-BSD Resident Trip (attracted by BSD's facilities & services)
B BSD Resident Trip (commuting trips)
Tot Total Trip
Based on the above estimated figures, on one hand, BSD will act as a counter magnet to Jakarta by attracting more trips to BSD. On the other hand, these additional trips will contribute to the increasing burden of the surrounding regional and toll road networks as follows.
Table 7 Estimated Average Daily Trip and Peak Period Trip
| Year | Scen | ario I | Scenario II | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADT | Peak | ADT | Peak | |||
| 1995 | Regional Road | 6898 | 862 | 6898 | 862 | |
| Toll Road | 2008 | 281 | 2008 | 281 | ||
| 2000 | Regional Road | 20480 | 2560 | 40922 | 5115 | |
| Toll Road | 5860 | 733 | 11772 | 1471 | ||
| 2005 | Regional Road | 40899 | 5112 | 85426 | 10678 | |
| Toll Road | 11620 | 1453 | 24251 | 3031 | ||
| 2010 | Regional Road | 66513 | 8314 | 117240 | 14656 | |
| Toll Road | 18938 | 2367 | 32965 | 4121 | ||
| 2015 | Regional Road | 111958 | 13995 | 203987 | 25496 | |
| Toll Road | 30359 | 3795 | 51041 | 6380 | ||
Note ADT Average Daily Trip (cpu)
Peak Period Trip (cpu) -- 12.5% of the ADT
On average, the road capacity is between 800-3600 cpu/hour for regional roads and 5000 cpu/hour for the toll roads. In 1995, the actual trips on regional roads were between 600-2100 cpu/hour and on toll roads were 4000-4200 cpu/hour.
In 1995, only around 12% of the BSD had been developed. This new town development contributed between 4-40% to its surrounding regional road trips and around 6% to the toll road trips. Compared to the 1995 figures, in 2015 BSD will generate 1624% additional trips to its regional road networks and 1350% to the toll road systems -- this is based on the Scenario-I. For the Scenario II, the figures are even higher, i.e. 2958% for the regional road trips and 2270% for the toll ones respectively.
Based on the estimated results, by the year 2000-2005 -- in which BSD will only be 20% of its fully developed area -- yet the regional road and the toli road networks will not be able to accommodate additional trips from the BSD new town development. A study for Lippo Cikarang (LC) -- a new town development of 5000 ha in Kabupaten Bekasi -- shows similar result (see Prakosa et.al. 1996). Given that all new towns and industrial estates developed along the toll road corridor are expected to behave as the one that BSD and LC have, the impact of this rapid development will be devastating..
Transportation Problem in Rapidly New Town Development Area
For the next 20 years (1995-2015), it is needed estimated that the construction and maintenance to correct externalities created by the BSD's additional trips will cost around $ 95 million. As comparison, income generated from BSD during the first 7 years (1989-1995) for the local government of Kabupaten Tangerang was around $ 5 million (see e.g. Harjaya et.al. 1996). Given government limited resources, this huge additional costs should not be the sole responsibility of the government.
BSD is only one of new towns developed in the rapidly new town development region in Botabek area, i.e. 6000 ha of a total of more than 43000 ha. In addition, a new consortium is in the process of proposing another new town development covering an area of 30000 ha in Kabupaten Bogor. Under scenario II and assuming other new towns will be similar to the BSD's experience, to correct externalities created by the new town development in Botabek region will cost $ 1156 million. For the needed road construction and maintenance.
Furthermore, new town and industrial estate development has been expanding beyond Jabotabek area, i.e. along the northern part of West Java corridor as well as along Jakarta-Bandung toll road area. Some of these new towns are: East Bukit Indah City and West Bukit Indah City of 2000 ha and 9000 ha in Kabupaten Purwakarta and Kabupaten Karawang respectively, and some others covering areas between 1000-2000 ha in Kabupaten Bandung. Furthermore, in the year 2020, Indonesia is estimated to have three additional megapolitan regions, i.e. in Surabaya, Bandung, and Medan.
Given the impact as shown on the above estimated figures, the existing government regulations requiring private developers to provide only the internal infrastructure should be evaluated. One of the options is to impose development impact fee for any new town or new industrial estate development. On one hand, this option is expected to provide additional regional transportation and other regional infrastructures. On the other hand, this development impact fee is also expected to control the rapidly new town development region. The latter is related to the viability of this rapidly new town development region -- given limited carrying capacity of the region, e.g. the problems of water shortage during dry season versus flooding during rainy season, etc.
In addition to imposing the development impact fee, given the magnitude of the areas to be developed, the government should require those various private
developers to have an integrated spatial plan in order to have an integrated and efficient transportation and other infrastructure systems.
Acknowledgment
The data for Bumi Serpong Damai (BSD) and Lippo Cikarang (LC) used in this paper are based primarily on two terminal projects which were initiated and done under the author's supervision. The writers of these terminal projects are Immanuel Teja Harjaya, Bobby Dinamika Andang, Tommy Hendria Bastamy for the BSD, and Budi Prakosa, Cicilia Indraningsih, Retno Dwi Surjaningsih for the LC.