Vol. 3 No. 1 (2020)

The COVID-19 pandemic has recently caused so much anxiety and speculation around the world. This phenomenon was mainly driven by the drastic increase in the number of infected people with the COVID-19 virus worldwide. Here we propose a simple model to predict the endemic in Indonesia. The model is based on the Richard

An outbreak of novel coronavirus has been happening in more than 200 countries and has shocked society. Several measures have been implemented to slowing down the epidemics while waiting for vaccine and pharmaceutical intervention. Using a deterministic and stochastic model, we assess the effectiveness of current strategies: reducing the transmission rate and speeding up the time to detect infected individuals. The reproductive ratio and the probability of extinction are determined. We found that the combination of both strategies is effective to slow down the epidemics. We also find that…

This is a pedagogical paper on estimating the number of people that can be infected by one infectious person during an epidemic outbreak, known as the reproduction number. Knowing the number is crucial for developing policy responses. There are generally two types of such a number, i.e., basic and effective (or instantaneous). While basic reproduction number is the average expected number of cases directly generated by one case in a population where all individuals are susceptible, effective reproduction number is the number of cases generated in the current state of a population. In this…

Since the end of 2019 an outbreak of a new strain of coronavirus, called SARS–CoV–2, is reported from China and later also from other parts of the world. Since 21 January 2020, World Health Organization (WHO) reports daily data on confirmed cases and deaths from both China and other countries [1]. The Johns Hopkins University [2] collects those data from various sources worldwide on a daily basis. For Germany, the Robert–Koch–Institute (RKI) also issues daily reports on the current number of infections and infection related fatal cases and also provides estimates of several disease-related…

This issue is dedicated to the study of the Corona Virus Disease pandemic, which is known as Covid-19. The focus on Covid-19 is to respond to the need for scientific communities to get information from the affecting region. The contributions from the authors are ranging from modeling and simulation, intervention, prediction, and data collections. Each paper went through the standard review process by at least two referees. We hope these publications could give insight information for a better understanding of the complicated transmission of Covid-19.

The whole world has been recently shocked by the massive spread of Covid-19 without any sign of when it will end. This phenomenon of this scale is understood as a plague that has never been happening in a lifetime. Almost all countries do not have proper preparedness when positive cases are found in a region. In a relatively short time, cases then spread quickly, and panic broke out in the community. With the rapid human to human transmission, and there is no vaccine available, the only way to control the spread of the disease is by implementing a contact tracing and isolation policy. The…