Vol. 4 No. 1 (2021)

A Continuous-Time Markov Chain model is constructed based on the a deterministic model of dengue fever transmission including mosquito fogging and the use of repellent. The basic reproduction number (R0) for the corresponding deterministic model is obtained. This number indicates the possible occurrence of an endemic at the early stages of the infection period. A multitype branching process is used to approximate the Markov chain. The construction of offspring probability generating functions related to the infected states is used to calculate the probability of disease extinction and the…

A number of benign EEG patterns are often misinterpreted as interictal epileptiform discharges (IEDs) because of their epileptiform appearances, one of them is wicket spike. Differentiating wicket spike from IEDs may help in preventing epilepsy misdiagnosis. The temporal location of IEDs and wicket spike were chosen from 143 EEG recordings. Amplitude, duration and angles were measured from the wave triangles and were used as the variables. In this study, linear discriminant analysis is used to create the formula to differentiate wicket spike from IEDs consisting spike and sharp waves. We…

The paper is concerned with the peristaltic-ciliary transport of a viscoplastic fluid (Casson fluid) through an inclined cylindrical tube. The peristalsis-cilia induced motion is analysed in the moving frame of reference under the lubrication approximations. Solutions to the flow characteristics petering to yielded and unyielded regions are obtained. The effects of various physical parameters on the axial velocity, the pumping characteristics, the pressure rise, and the frictional force over one wavelength, along with the trapping phenomenon are presented through graphs. Further, the…

In this paper, we design a Nonlinear Observer (NLO) to estimate the effective reproduction number (Rt) of infectious diseases. The NLO is designed from a discrete-time augmented Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) model. The observer gain is obtained by solving a Linear Matrix Inequality (LMI). The method is used to estimate Rt in Jakarta using epidemiological data during COVID-19 pandemic. If the observer gain is tuned properly, this approach produces similar result compared to existing approach such as Extended Kalman filter (EKF).

In this article, we propose and analyze a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission among a closed population, with social awareness and rapid test intervention as the control variables. For this, we have constructed the model using a compartmental system of the ordinary differential equations. Dynamical analysis regarding the existence and local stability of equilibrium points is conducted rigorously. Our analysis shows that COVID-19 will disappear from the population if the basic reproduction number is less than one, and persist if the basic reproduction number is greater than one. In…

Strategies for reducing dengue incidence are by minimizing the contact between mosquitoes and human or the use of vaccine. However, the candidate of dengue is not perfect and potentially results in more secondary infection cases.This leads to the question which strategy should be decided by individuals to reduce the chance for being infected by dengue. A game-dynamic modeling framework by coupling epidemic and behavior model has been constructed to study the effects of human decision making behavior on dengue transmission dynamics. We also consider strategies as time-dependent controls and…